Rice feeds more than half the world—but also fuels diabetes and climate change
稻米活世界半以上的人口，不也助糖尿病及候。
According to indonesian legend, rice was bestowed upon the island of Java by the goddess Dewi Sri. Pitying its inhabitants the blandness of their existing staple, cassava, she taught them how to nurture rice seedlings in lush green paddy fields.
根印度尼西的，稻米是由女神德斯里(Dewi Sri)予爪哇。其居民有主要物，木薯的平淡味。她教他，如何在青翠的色稻田中，培育稻米幼苗。
In India, the Hindu goddess Annapurna is said to have played a similar role; in Japan, Inari. Across Asia, rice has been conferred with a divine, and usually feminine, origin story.
在印度，印度教女神安普娜(Annapurna)曾扮演，一似日本稻荷神(Inari)的角色。於洲各地，稻米皆曾被予一，神且通常是女性化的起源故事。
Such mythologizing is understandable. For thousands of years the starchy seeds of the grass plant Oryza sativa (often called Asian rice) have been the continent’s main foodstuff. Asia accounts for 90% of the world’s rice production and almost as much of its consumption. Asians get more than a quarter of their daily calories from rice./p>
神化是可以理解的。千年，禾本科植物水稻(Oryza sativa ，通常洲稻米)粉的子，一直是大的主要食。洲世界稻米量90%，消量也乎相同。洲人稻米，取超四分之一，其每日量。
The UN estimates that the average Asian consumes 77kg of rice a year—more than the average African, European and American combined (see chart). Hundreds of millions of Asian farmers depend on growing the crop, many with only tiny patches of land. Yet the world’s rice bowl is cracking.
合估，洲人平均每年消77公斤稻米。超非洲、洲及美洲平均(表)。
Global rice demand—in Africa as well as Asia—is soaring. Yet yields are stagnating. The land, water and labor that rice production requires are becoming scarcer. Climate change is a graver threat.
全球稻米需求(於非洲及洲)正升中。不，生量是停的。生稻米所需的土地、水及力，正得更缺乏。候是更重威。
Rising temperatures are withering crops; more frequent floods are destroying them. No mere victim of global warming, rice cultivation is also a major cause of it, because paddy fields emit a lot of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The crop that fuelled the rise of 60% of the world’s population is becoming a source of insecurity and threat.
上升的度正在使作物枯萎；更繁的洪水正在摧它。不只是全球暖化的受害者，水稻植也是其主要原因。因，稻田出大量甲烷，是一有力的室。世界人口上升60%的作物，正在成不安全及威的一源。
Rising demand exacerbates the problem. By 2050 there will be 5.3bn people in Asia, up from 4.7bn today, and 2.5bn in Africa, up from 1.4bn. That growth is projected to drive a 30% rise in rice demand, according to a study published in the journal Nature Food. And only in the richest Asian countries, such as Japan and South Korea, are bread and pasta eating into rice’s monopoly as the continental staple.
上升的需求化了此。於洲，目前47人，到2050年，有53人，而在非洲14人上升到25人。根表於，由英Nature Portfolio出版公司出版之《自然食》期刊的一研究，那成，在稻米需求上，上升30%。不，在日本及等，最富裕的洲家，包意大利品正在吞噬，稻米作大主食的占性。
Yet Asia’s rice productivity growth is falling. Yields increased by an annual average of only 0.9% over the past decade, down from around 1.3% in the decade before that, according to data from the UN. The drop was sharpest in South-East Asia, where the rate of increase fell from 1.4% to 0.4%.
然而，洲稻米生率成正下降中。根自合的，在去十年，生量增加的年平均，在那之前十年，大1.3%下降到0.9%。此下降，在南最急，其增加率1.4%降至0.4%。
Indonesia and the Philippines already import a lot of rice. If yields do not increase, these countries will be increasingly dependent on others to feed their 400m people, according to the Nature Food study. For years production kept pace with rising demand thanks to the enduring effects of the green revolution, which began in the 1960s.
印度尼西及菲律已口大量稻米。根表於《自然食》期刊的研究，倘若生量不增加，此些家日益仰其他家，活其 4人。多年，由於1960年代，始之色革命的持久影，生量上升的需求。
To tackle poor yields, scientists at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), based in the Philippines, developed IR8, a variety that flourished with the use of fertilizer and irrigation systems. Introduced when China was emerging from famine and India on the brink of one, IR8 proved a mass life-saver.
了解不佳的生量，部在菲律之稻米研究所(IRRI)的科家了IR8，是一因使用肥料及灌溉系後，生良好的品。中在荒，而印度於荒，被引入。IR8是大的生命救星。
As IR8 spread across Asia, from the Philippines to Pakistan, rice yields increased. Greater productivity made rice a more attractive crop, so more resources were dedicated to it. Reduced worries about food security freed Asian governments to focus on industrialization and economic growth.
著IR8散播到洲，菲律到巴基斯坦，稻米量增加了。更高的生率，使稻米成一更具吸引力的作物。因此，投入了更多源於此作物上。有食安全的少，使洲各政府能注於，工化及成。
IRRI has developed new varieties of rice that could repeat some of this success. They are more productive and climate-resilient, and require less water. Still, meeting growing demand looks harder than it did in the 1960s. Urbanisation and relentless sub-division are eating into land holdings. Between 1971 and 2016 the size of the average Indian farm fell by more than half, from 2.3 hectares to 1.1.
稻米研究所已出多，能再一些上述成果的新稻米品。管如此，足成中的需求，看比1960年代更。都市化及情的再分割，正在吞噬土地所有。在19712016年，印度平均面少多於半，2.3少到1.1公。
This makes productivity gains harder, especially where labour is scarce. Planting seeds in neat rows, replanting seedlings and harvesting them is back-breaking drudgery that Asian workers increasingly have the means to escape. Water, another big input, is scarcer. In many places soils are depleted and poisoned by excessive use of fertilizer and pesticide.
使得提高生率得更，特是在力缺乏的地方。整地播、重新播及收割，是洲工人日益有法逃避的辛苦差事。另一大事，水更缺乏。在多地方，土壤由於化肥料及的度使用，而遭枯竭及染。
And no crop is as vulnerable to global warming as rice, say scientists at IRRI. A study in 2004 found that a 1°C increase in minimum temperatures leads to a 10% decline in yields. Rising sea levels, another result of warming, are already causing salt intrusion in low-lying areas of the Mekong delta, eroding rice yields there.
於稻米研究所的科家表示，不有任何作物像稻米那易受全球暖化影。於2004年一研究，最低度升高1°C，在量上，致下降10%。暖化的另一果，海平面上升已致，分入侵湄公河三角洲低地，正在削弱那的稻米量。
Massive floods last year in Pakistan, the world’s fourth-biggest rice exporter, are estimated to have destroyed 15% of its harvest. Rice’s contribution to global warming represents an underappreciated feedback loop. Irrigating paddy fields starves the underlying soil of oxygen.
於巴基斯坦(世界第四大稻米出口)，去年的大洪水，估已摧其15%的收成。稻米全球暖化的促成作用，代表了一未得正估的反循。灌溉稻田使底土壤缺氧。
This encourages methane-emitting bacteria to flourish. Consequently, rice production is responsible for 12% of total methane emissions—and 1.5% of total greenhouse-gas emissions, comparable to aviation. Vietnam’s paddy fields produce more carbon equivalent than the country’s transportation.
促了出甲烷的菌繁茂生。因此，稻米生致甲烷排放量的 12%，及室排放量的1.5%，比得上航空。越南的稻田生，比交通量多的碳等同物。
Rice’s nutritional quality is another growing concern. The grain is high in gluose, which contributes to diabetes and obesity, and low in iron and zinc, two important micronutrients. In South Asia the prevalence of diabetes and malnutrition can be traced to over-reliance on rice.
稻米的品，是另一日益令人切的。物含有致糖尿病及肥胖的高葡萄糖量，而重要微量素，及含量低。在南，糖尿病及不良的盛行可被探究到，稻米的度依。
Tackling so many problems is complicated. If the first green revolution was about productivity, says Jean Balié, director-general of IRRI, the next one should focus on “systems rather than solutions at the plant or plot level”. This calls for better rice policies as well as better varieties.
解多是的。稻米研究所所，Jean Balié表示，倘若首次色革命是有生率，下一次著重於“系而不是植物或小土地的解方案”。除了更佳的品之外，也需要更好的稻米政策。
Poor or outdated government interventions underlie most of the productivity and environmental worries. They distort markets and blunt incentives for change. Consider the case of Sandeep Singh of Bassi Akbarpur, a small village in the northern Indian state of Haryana.
拙劣或的政府干，成大多生率及境令人之事的真正原因。此些干扭曲了市且削弱了改的。印度北部，哈里(Haryana)邦一小村，巴斯阿克巴布村的桑迪普·辛格(Sandeep Singh，一名自哈里邦的印度曲棍球)的例子列入考。
Though he grows rice, he prefers to eat roti, a bread made of wheat, a crop far better suited to Haryana’s hot, dry climate. Yet Mr Singh has been pushed by government incentives into a rice-wheat cropping cycle. India procures rice from farmers at a guaranteed price, often set above the market rate.
然他植稻米，不他更喜吃食一，由更合哈里邦，炎乾燥候之小作物，做的酵素包(roti)。不，辛格先生一直受到政府激措施的推，而入稻-的植循中。印度以通常定高於市的保格，民得稻米。
The crop is then sold to the poor at a subsidised price, promoting rice consumption. Fertilisers and water are also subsidised. Such interventions are prevalent across Asia. Most were introduced at a time of persistent food insecurity, when diabetes and environmental costs were much less of a concern than they are today.
之後，以的格作物人，以促稻米消。肥料及水也得。干，盛行於洲各地。大多是在持的食不安全期，被引入的。糖尿病及境代，比今的少。
Untying policy knots that have tigtened over decades is hard. Farmers are vote banks that governments dare not antagonize. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which prides itself on implementing tough but necessary measures, learnt this in 2021 when it was forced to roll back agriculture reforms in the face of protests by farmers.
解十年，一直的政策是的。民是政府不敢抗的票行。印度政的印度人民(Bharatiya Janata Party)，以施硬必要的措施自豪。於2021年，在面民的抗，被迫取消改革，清了此。
Though there is no single solution for the deepening rice crisis, there are many partial ones. In parts of Asia where yields are low, such as Myanmar and the Philippines, it is possible to raise productivity by using more fertilizer and pesticide without doing serious environmental damage.
然日益加深的稻米危有一解方案，不有多局部的解方案。在如甸及菲律等，量低的洲部分地，藉由使用更多的化肥料及，提高生率，而有造成重的境破，是可能的。
Scientists at IRRI and other research outfits have developed rice varieties resistant to floods, drought and heat. They have also produced more nutritious strains. These changes, combined with innovations in cultivation such as direct seeding—a planting method that requires less water and labor—can reduce environmental damage and increase yields.
於稻米研究所及其他研究的科家，已出洪水、乾旱及炎候，具抵抗力的稻米品。他也已造出，更的品系。 些改，合在如直接播(一需要少水及力的植方法)等，栽培上的新，能少境的破及增加量。
Experiments across Asia have confirmed this. In Bangladesh farmers growing Sub1, a flood-tolerant rice variety, achieved 6% higher yields and 55% greater profits, according to a study published in the journal Food Policy in 2021. A review of field trials in Global Food Security suggests drought-resistant varieties enjoy a yield advantage of 0.8-1.2 tonnes per hectare.
洲各地的多已一。根在2021年，表於《食政策》期刊的一研究，於孟加拉，植耐洪水之稻品Sub1的民，得了高6%的量，及多於55%的收益。在全球食安全有田的一回中，示抗旱的品有，每公0.8-1.2的量。
The challenge is to get improved seeds and methods adopted at scale. Many farmers do not know they exist. Some are averse to trying something new. A nationwide survey of rice farmers in India in 2017-18 found that only 26% had adopted varieties released since 2004.
挑是大模得改良的子及方法。多民不知道它的存在。有些人不意新事物。於2017到18年中，一印度稻的全性查，26%稻曾用，自2004年推出的品。
Governments can play a big role in highlighting the benefits of new varieties and methods. Vietnam’s is leading the way. It recently announced an ambitious plan to cultivate “low-carbon” rice on 1m hectares. It promotes this as a means to save labor and improve efficiencies. It is essential to avoid advertising emissions-mitigation as a burden to farmers, says Bjoern Ole Sander, a climate scientist at IRRI.
在新品及方法的好上，政府能扮演一重要角色。越南正在向此方向。其最近宣布了一，在1百公土地上，植“低碳”稻米之雄心勃勃的。它起作一，省力及改善效率的一方法。稻米研究所(IRRI)的候科家，Bjoern Ole Sander表示，是避免排，民是一，所必需的。
A bottom-up approach is also important. Agriculture-extension workers can play a big role in transmitting know-how, but are often neglected by policymakers. Most public agriculture spending goes on subsidies and irrigation, which tend to benefit richer farmers with bigger landholdings.
一自下而上的方法也是重要的。在播知上，推人能扮演一重要角色，不往往遭策者忽。大多公的支出，用於及灌溉。向有利於，有大土地之富裕的民。
Governments also need to do a lot more to reduce people’s dependency on rice. At India’s request, the UN has declared 2023 the year of millet. India is hoping to sell farmers and consumers on this crop, which is far more nutritious than rice or wheat and requires a lot less water. Indonesia is also promoting it.
政府也需要做更多的事，少人稻米的依。印度的要求，合已宣布，2023年小米年。印度正期盼，向民及消者出售，比稻米或小更，且需要少很多水的作物。印尼也正在提倡小米。
Today only health-conscious hipsters in Delhi would choose a millet biryani over a rice one. But where elites lead, masses often follow. If a big market emerged, it would entice some farmers to switch and even ardent rice growers to diversify.
今，在德里注重健康之髦的人，小米作的印度香，先於稻米作的印度香。不，在精英的地方，群往往跟。倘若出一大市，吸引一些民，甚至衷的稻米植者，也事多化。
The first green revolution averted an Asian catastrophe. The situation may not be as precarious today, but the challenge is in some ways bigger. Countries need to produce more with less—and with much greater care for the environment. That would amount to a “truly green revolution”, says Mr Balié, IRRI’s boss.
第一次色革命避免了一洲。目前，事可能非那不定。不，在某些方面，挑是更大的。多需要，以少的源生更多的物，且以更多得多的心待境。稻米研究所的所，Balié 先生表示，那相於一“真正的色革命”。
The rewards could also be unprecedentedly large. More sustainable cultivation and increased yields would give farmers higher and steadier icomes. It would help them adapt to climate change and contribute to it less. This success, by no means assured, would help guarantee food security for Asians—and for the world.
回也可能是前所未有的巨大。更可持的植及更高的量，民高且定的收入。有助於他候，及少促成候。此成功，非有保，能有助於保障洲人及世界的食安全。
址：https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/03/28/the-global-rice-crisis
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